大国气候博弈的中国经济与生态环境效应评估.

Climate change has become a critical issue for ensuring the sustainable development of human society. In the future, countries with greater potential for carbon reduction and advanced carbon technologies will enjoy a more favorable position in global development. The struggle for leadership and influence in the global climate change arena will intensify between developed countries such as the United States and those in Europe, the main promoter of climate change policies, and developing countries such as China. The Chinese government' s climate strategies, including goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality, are currently focused on finding ways to break the impasse in this climate game between major powers. Carbon tariff policies promoted by Europe and the United States have emerged as a powerful tool in this game. This paper employs a global multi-regional computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic and ecological impacts of the post-carbon tariff era on China. We consider eight possible scenarios based on the assumption that the European Union and the United States will impose carbon tariffs on imported products to meet global carbon reduction targets. The study finds that: ① The carbon tariff policies implemented by the United States and Europe have significant adverse effects on China' s GDP and welfare. Furthermore, these policies have a considerable detrimental impact on exports that are highly carbon-intensive, while their overall effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions remains limited. ② The carbon border tax policy, as applied by developed economies such as the United States and the European Union, does not have a clear effect on reducing carbon emissions and is a typical example of a 'harmful to others, unhelpful to oneself' behavior. ③ The Export Tax Rebate policy of China can to some extent alleviate the adverse impacts of the European and the United States Carbon Border Tax policies on the Chinese economy, while also potentially reducing China' s carbon emissions. ④ The Chinese government needs to be cautious in responding to the retaliatory measures of imposing carbon border taxes on Chinese imports, as they could cause more severe economic losses to China. The article proposes that China should take proactive measures to mitigate the negative impacts of carbon tariffs by implementing an export tax rebate policy. It also suggests guiding carbon-intensive export-oriented enterprises to proactively develop emission reduction plans and carbon footprint inventories, as well as enhancing clean energy technologies. In addition, China should actively achieve its 'dual carbon' goals, thereby avoiding economic suppression by developed economies such as Europe and the United States, who may use carbon tariffs as an excuse. The country should increase its R&D investment to improve its green image, while strengthening international cooperation on climate change governance and seeking a fair and just path towards reducing emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]