Spatial Inhomogeneity of Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Its Uncertainty in CMIP6 Earth System Models.

This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the ability of 12 Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate the spatial inhomogeneity of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) can reasonably simulate the increasing trend of CO2 concentration from 1850 to 2014, compared with the observation data from the Scripps CO2 Program and CMIP6 prescribed data, and improves upon the CMIP5 MME CO2 concentration (which is overestimated after 1950). The growth rate of CO2 concentration in the northern hemisphere (NH) is higher than that in the southern hemisphere (SH), with the highest growth rate in the mid-latitudes of the NH. The MME can also reasonably simulate the seasonal amplitude of CO2 concentration, which is larger in the NH than in the SH and grows in amplitude after the 1950s (especially in the NH). Although the results of the MME are reasonable, there is a large spread among ESMs, and the difference between the ESMs increases with time. The MME results show that regions with relatively large CO2 concentrations (such as northern Russia, eastern China, Southeast Asia, the eastern United States, northern South America, and southern Africa) have greater seasonal variability and also exhibit a larger inter-model spread. Compared with CMIP5, the CMIP6 MME simulates an average spatial distribution of CO2 concentration that is much closer to the site observations, but the CMIP6-inter-model spread is larger. The inter-model differences of the annual means and seasonal cycles of atmospheric CO2 concentration are both attributed to the differences in natural sources and sinks of CO2 between the simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]