Social isolation, health dynamics, and mortality: evidence across 21 European countries.

We provide a comprehensive picture of the health effects of social isolation using longitudinal data from 21 European countries. First, using Cox regressions, we find a significant, strong, and robust association between our social isolation index and mortality. The association is much stronger in Eastern European countries. While all of our pooled countries estimates ranged between a 20 and 30% increase in the mortality hazard for the socially isolated that number jumps to 45% for Eastern European countries. We then estimate linear regressions to study the dynamic "value-added" effects of social isolation on health and other mediator outcomes. We find that social isolation at baseline leads to worsening health in subsequent waves along all of the dimensions observed. Up to 13% of the effect of baseline social isolation on mortality can be attributed to the combined one-wave-ahead impact of social isolation on increased frailty, reduced cognitive function, and increased smoking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]