Detección, modelización y proyección del crecimiento urbano de núcleos de población en diferentes cuencas hidrológicas de Chihuahua, México.

The objective was to detect, model and predict the urban growth of population centers in different hydrological basins of Chihuahua, Mexico. Urban growth was modeled to predict 2030, 2040 and 2050 future scenarios using logistic regression and CA-Markov incorporated in the Land Change Modeler (LCM) integrated in IDRISI. Land use maps for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 were produced using Support Vector Machine (SVM). The most intense land use changes (LULC) occurred in the period 2010-2015, the increase in urban areas comes mostly from forests. The RL model proved to be consistent showing McFadden's Pseudo R2 greater than 0.2. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) values are considered acceptable. In the simulated urban land use, the highest growth is observed in the year 2030, and a low rate is identified for 2040 and 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]