Recurrence risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinomas based on immune gene expression and features extracted from pathological images.

Background: Immune-based therapy is a promising type of treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) but has only been partially successful due to the high heterogeneity in HCC tumor. The differences in the degree of tumor cell progression and in the activity of tumor immune microenvironment could lead to varied clinical outcome. Accurate subgrouping for recurrence risk is an approach to address the issue of such heterogeneity. It remains under investigation as whether integrating quantitative whole slide image (WSI) features with the expression profile of immune marker genes can improve the risk stratification, and whether clinical outcome prediction can assist in understanding molecular biology that drives the outcome. Methods: We included a total of 231 patients from the Cancer Genome Atlas Liver Hepatocellular Carcinoma (TCGA-LIHC) project. For each patient, we extracted 18 statistical metrics corresponding to a global region of interest and 135 features regarding nucleus shape from WSI. A risk score was developed using these image features with high-dimensional survival modeling. We also introduced into the model the expression profile of 66 representative marker genes relevant to currently available immunotherapies. We stratified all patients into higher and lower-risk subgroup based on the final risk score selected from multiple models generated, and further investigated underlying molecular mechanisms associated with the risk stratification. Results: One WSI feature and three immune marker genes were selected into the final recurrence-free survival (RFS) prediction model following the best integrated modeling framework. The resultant score showed a significantly improved prediction performance on the test dataset (mean time-dependent AUCs = 0.707) as compared to those of other types (e.g: mean time-dependent AUCs of AJCC tumor stage = 0.525) of input data integration. To assess that the risk score could provide a higher-resolution risk stratification, a lower-risk subgroup (or a higher-risk subgroup) was arbitrarily assigned according to score falling below (or above) the median score. The lower risk subgroup had significantly longer median RFS time than that of the higher-risk patients (median RFS = 903 vs. 265 days, log-rank test p-value< 0.0001). Additionally, the higher-risk subgroup, in contrast to the lower-risk patients were characterized with a significant downregulation of immune checkpoint genes, suppressive signal in tumor immune response pathways, and depletion of CD8 T cells. These observations for the higher-risk subgroup suggest that new targets for adoptive or checkpoint-based combined systemic therapies may be useful. Conclusion: We developed a novel prognostic model to predict RFS for HCC patients, using one feature that can be automatically extracted from routine histopathological images, as well as the expression profiles of three immune marker genes. The methodology used in this paper demonstrates the feasibility of developing prognostic models that provide both useful risk stratification along with valuable biological insights into the underlying characteristics of the subgroups identified. Author summary: Prognosis of recurrence events is important for HCC patients due to a high likelihood of post-surgery recurrence. Recurrence risk is related to both intra-tumor cell differentiation, and functional characteristics of the immune microenvironment. It remains under investigation as whether integrating quantitative whole slide image (WSI) features with the expression profile of immune marker genes can improve the risk stratification, and whether clinical outcome prediction can assist in understanding molecular biology that drives the outcome. By combining information from WSI features and the expression of immune marker genes, we derived a risk score, supported with underlying molecular mechanisms, that was shown to effectively stratify patients according to recurrence risk whereby the higher-risk subgroup experienced tumor recurrence events almost two years earlier than the lower-risk patients. The methods provide an effective way to build prognostic models with good performance and internal validity that are able to combine information from sets of features of different types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]