Exploring the influence of Brazilian project cancellation mechanisms on new wind power generation.

The use of wind power has gained prominence on the world stage, especially in Brazil. In addition to generating energy free of emissions, wind technology is the second cheapest generation option in Brazil. At the same time, it has contributed to reducing hydrological vulnerability caused by climate variation. Although wind power has experienced a steady expansion in the last decade, recent poor outcomes of wind auctions produced uncertainty about the future of this technology in the country. This paper analyses the influence of contract mechanisms used in Brazilian energy auctions for the growth of wind generation. To do this, a scenario analysis based on a hybrid simulation model is used, combining agent-based modelling (ABM) and system dynamics (SD). From the hybrid simulation, the effect of the wind project cancellation policy is analysed, on the one hand, and different ceiling prices for competing sources in the auctions are assessed, on the other. Moreover, the simulation model shows how hydro conditions affect reserve energy auctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]