Seasonal variations in ecosystem service supply and demand based on the SWAT model: A case study in the Guanting Reservoir Basin, China.

• We developed a method to quantify seasonal supply–demand variations of ecosystem service. • Water provisioning service is pronouncedly mismatched in winter. • The developed method based on SWAT has potential to estimate other water-related services. • Reservoirs are important for addressing unmatched supply–demand relation at the watershed scale. The match and mismatch between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs) are closely related to watershed sustainable development. Previous studies have mainly focused on annual or interdecadal matching relationships, and little is known about the seasonal variations of the ES supply–demand relationship. Based on the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and statistical data, we took the Guanting Reservoir Basin, a transitional ecosystem from semi-arid areas to arid areas, as the study area to analyze the supply and demand of water provisioning services and soil conservation services and identified their matching relationship on the seasonal scale. The results showed that the water provisioning services was in short supply, with a supply–demand ratio of 0.81, whereas the supply of soil conservation services was in excess of demand. In terms of seasonal variation, the mismatch of water provisioning services was particularly severe in winter, followed by that in spring. The mismatch of soil conservation services was relatively severe in winter, followed by that in summer. Such mismatches imply that we must pay attention to the misallocation of resources caused by seasonal variations. It is crucial that policy-makers consider the role of reservoirs and water transfer in providing seasonal water sources for sustaining water resources in transitional areas, and optimize land management to prevent the aggravation of soil erosion in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]