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Learning to Forecast: The Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Challenge.

Authors :
Bracher, Johannes
Koster, Nils
Krüger, Fabian
Lerch, Sebastian
Source :
American Statistician. Feb2024, Vol. 78 Issue 1, p115-127. 13p.
Publication Year :
2024

Abstract

We report on a course project in which students submit weekly probabilistic forecasts of two weather variables and one financial variable. This real-time format allows students to engage in practical forecasting, which requires a diverse set of skills in data science and applied statistics. We describe the context and aims of the course, and discuss design parameters like the selection of target variables, the forecast submission process, the evaluation of forecast performance, and the feedback provided to students. Furthermore, we describe empirical properties of students' probabilistic forecasts, as well as some lessons learned on our part. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
00031305
Volume :
78
Issue :
1
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
American Statistician
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
175278825
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2023.2199800