Disparidad entre cartografías oficiales de peligrosidad y eventos reales: análisis de posibles causas. Estudio de caso en el río Campanillas (Málaga).

One of the main problems faced by authorities when delimiting flood areas is derived from the fact that hydraulic-hydrological models and their flood maps do not accurately correspond to the actual extent of the floods and hazards, often underestimating them. In order to assess this hypothesis, this paper analyses the recent flood in Campanillas (Málaga, Spain). The study compares the differences between the official flood maps and the real flood. The results of this study clearly confirm the aforementioned underestimation. Beyond a simple comparison, a series of potential causes of this underestimation are proposed. Some of them are related to the hydraulic-hydrological model used to create the official maps (e.g., it represents a closed area, it omits indirect anthropogenic activities, it omits flood flux alterations caused by roads, bridges, etc.). Additionally, other causes are related to the characteristics of the flood hazard in Mediterranean areas (e.g., simultaneous and synergic associated hazards and the omission of rhexistasy in Mediterranean areas when modelling water infrastructures). To conclude, based on the causes of the highlighted inaccuracy of the official maps, several measures aimed at improving the forecasts in flood areas in these official maps are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]