A Novel Modeling Method of Extended Grey EGM(1,1,Σe^(ck)) Model and Its Application in Predictions.

In the grey models, the GM(1,1) model is an important type of prediction model. The traditional grey GM(1,1) model has good prediction results in the case the original data show exponential variations at a slow rate. However, in practical problems, although showing exponential variations or approximately exponential variations, original data vary very fast sometimes. In these cases, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model tends to have poor prediction accuracy, mainly because the data fails to meet the laws presented by the traditional model. Therefore, the paper makes improvements in the following two aspects: first, the paper transforms the traditional accumulated generating sequence of original data; second, the paper extends the traditional grey model's structure, i.e., building a grey EGM(1,1,Σe^(ck)) model. The paper offers the parameter optimization method of the grey EGM(1,1,Σe^(ck)) model. Using the novel modeling method proposed, the paper builds the grey EGM(1,1,Σe^(ck)) models for China's total electricity consumption and China's GDP per capita, respectively, in the final section. Results show that the models built with the proposed modeling method have high simulation precision and prediction precision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]