Pakistan's 2022 floods: Spatial distribution, causes and future trends from Sentinel-1 SAR observations.

Floods are a great threat to Pakistan with increasing concern. As the consequences of increased extreme weather related to climate change, Pakistan experiences severe floods almost every year. This study aims to explore and analysis the actual inundated situation, magnitude, the possible causes of the 2022 devastating floods, and future trends. We presented an enhanced nationwide flood mapping method and compared with other pixel-based image processing techniques including active contours and change detection. These algorithms were applied to Sentinel-1 Ground Range Detected (GRD) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery (10 m spatial resolution) with various land types and inundation scenarios in Pakistan, and were evaluated using other reference flood products. Accuracy evaluation analysis demonstrated that our algorithm has high robustness and accuracy, with the overall accuracy (OA) higher than 0.83 and critical success index (CSI) up to 0.91, and is suitable for automated flood monitoring in near real time. Nearly one-third of the lands were flooded in 2022, and more than half were inundated croplands. Punjab and Sindh provinces were the most severely affected regions, with the proportions of inundated area in 2022 (21.26% and 20.55%) nearly twice of that in 2010 (11.40% and 12.70%), indicating an intensified flooding trend. Analysis of possible influential factors showed that the intense and cumulative rainfall during the monsoon season (June to August) was the major cause of the 2022 flood event. Although the snow melted rapidly in June (the average change in snow depth is ∼10 mm), the overall ablation contributed insignificant amount to the flood water. The glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) induced by abnormal April–May heatwave provide water flowed into the tributaries of the Indus River, but are difficult to spread for thousands of kilometers from mountains to the plain downstream. The combination of the intrinsic arid climate and extreme floods exacerbate the already severe situation. • This paper presents an automated method based on tile thresholding and fuzzy logic. • The inundation in Punjab and Sindh in 2022 are nearly twice of that in 2010. • The cumulative rainfall is the major cause of the 2022 flood event. • The snow melting and GLOFs are likely small relative to the flood water gains. • These observations imply an intensified flooding and water cycle in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]