From resettlement to revitalization: Examining the water resource environment carrying capacity of ecological migrant resettlement areas in China.

Water resources and environmental carrying capacity are important indicators for measuring the development of the relationship between humans and land in water-scarce regions. Humans must adhere to the principle of sustainable development and promote harmony between economic activities and water resources. Specifically, humans perceive the energy and constraints of resources and the environment, and utilize resources and the environment to develop agricultural, industrial, and construction production activities to meet human survival and life needs (Chen et al., 2012; Guo et al., 2020). At the same time, intense human activities also intensify the constraints on resources and the environment (Feng and Li, 2018). The growth of the population system also requires that the social economy maintain sustainable development while leaving enough space and time for water resources systems to recover (Tan and Lu, 2015; Wu et al., 2021). Essentially, humans must survive, the social economy must develop, water resources and the environment must be protected, and these three elements must maintain a dynamic balance. In summary, the basic idea of this article is to use the total amount of water resources that humans perceive as available as the basis in fragile ecological areas, starting from the perspective of social and economic development, to calculate and estimate the threshold of water resources and environmental carrying capacity. At the same time, the concept of "leverage points" in system theory is introduced, with the population growth system as the fulcrum, identifying the leverage points between the population growth system and water resources and environmental carrying capacity. Finally, a research framework of "environmental perception-capacity assessment-policy development" is constructed, exploring a sustainable development model for water resource utilization in the Hongsibao ecological resettlement area. The idea is as shown in Fig. 1. Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of research ideas on water resources and environmental carrying capacity. [Display omitted] • Study pinpoints leverage between population growth and water resource carrying capacity. • Study confirms steady development boosts WRECC and system recovery. • Study reveals water capacity limits socio-economic sustainability in China's ecological resettlement. • Revisiting resettlement: harmonizing ecological migration with water and environmental limits. Identifying the threshold and leverage point of water resource environment carrying capacity (WRECC) is crucial for effectively adjusting the industrial structure, population migration, and regional planning. This study has introduced the concept of leverage points and employed both the gray system model and the system dynamic (SD) model to reveal the threshold of WRECC and capture the coupling relationship between the population growth system and the WRECC system in Hongsibao County, China. Three typical scenarios were designed for distinct purposes and simulated by the constructed SD model in Hongsibao County from 2021 to 2030. The results indicate that the quantity of water resource carrying capacity, rather than the quality, is a critical shortcoming hindering socio-economic sustainability in Hongsibao County. Threshold and leverage point analysis showed that the increased development speed scenario performed the worst in terms of WRECC (28.02 × 104 persons in 2021) and leverage point (23.65 × 104 persons in 2026). The steady development scenario is considerably more effective for improving WRECC and boosting system recovery and conditioning, and the steady development scenario performs the best in both aspects. To achieve stable development, priority actions are necessary. Firstly, it is imperative to improve agricultural water-saving irrigation rates while addressing soil salinization in Hongsibao County. Secondly, efforts should be directed toward developing the grape industry, breeding industry, and wolfberry industry to stimulate economic growth while avoiding excessive water consumption. Finally, promoting the establishment of comprehensive sewage disposal infrastructure in rural areas is vital for protecting the water environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]