温室无土栽培切花月季生长发育预测模型及其验证.

Objective】The paper aims to establish a model predicting the growth, development stages, and harvesting period of soilless-cultivated greenhouse roses, thereby providing theoretical support for the regulation of environmental factors in the cut rose production process.【Method】In the study, three distinct cut rose varieties with significant differences in growth cycles, namely ‘Loshen’‘Huanlesong’ and ‘Fenhongxueshan’, were selected for soilless cultivation in plastic greenhouse tunnels in Malong district, Qujing city. Data on growth and development were collected over five periods, accompanied by concurrent records of light radiation and temperature during 2021-2022. By analyzing the growth cycle characteristics of cut roses, the study established a predictive model based on the physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR（PTEP） to describe the growth and development stages of cut roses. Subsequently, the constructed growth model was validated using independent data.【Result】Cut roses required physiological thermal accumulations of 22.08, 29.41 and 38.89 MJ/m² during the pruning to bud, bud to flowering, and flowering to harvest stages, respectively. The predictive model for the growth and development stages of cut roses, constructed in the study, was based on PTEP. At various growth and development stages of cut roses, the simulated predicted values of the model exhibit good consistency with the measured values. The 1∶1 linear regression standard errors（RMSE） between model-predicted values and measured values were 0.7, 6.5 and 9.4 days, demonstrating the accuracy of the model predictions.【Conclusion】Considering the combined effects of light radiation and temperature, the model developed in the study can predict the timing of various growth and development stages of cut roses, as well as the harvest period for cut flower products. With this model, growers can make precise adjustments to light and temperature in the greenhouse, effectively regulating the growth cycle of cut rose products. The study not only provides a scientific foundation for the production of cut rose products in greenhouse soilless cultivation but also offers valuable technical support for growers in formulating practical production plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]