Predictable in Their Failure: An Analysis of Mediation Efforts to End the Palestinian Split.

This paper asks why mediation efforts between Fatah and Hamas have failed. The analysis of in-depth interviews with Palestinian stakeholders, guided by relevant theoretical frameworks, indicates that: first, Israel and its allies act as systemic contextual barriers to ending the Palestinian split. Second, serious obstacles to reconciliation exist because the split has lasted for nearly 16 years. Third, mediator characteristics did not affect the outcomes. Fourth, increased polarization in the region following the Arab Spring has adversely affected reconciliation. This research points to the futility of mediation efforts in the current circumstances and the need to challenge existing systemic barriers to reconciliation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]