Uncertainties in the technological pathway towards low-carbon freight transport under carbon neutral target in China.

The freight transport sector is a critical sector for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. However, there are many uncertainties regarding the e-commerce development, promotion speed of low-carbon measures, and freight transport technologies. Existing research lacks considering the multiple uncertainties on the low-carbon technological pathway for freight transport. Consequently, a bottom-up National Energy Technology-Transport (NET-Transport) model is developed based on the principle of cost minimization for optimizing the low-carbon transition pathway of the freight transport. The study comprehensively evaluates the sustainable technological pathway, energy saving and carbon emission reduction of various measures, including shifting to low-carbon transport modes, improving transport energy efficiency and promoting clean energy. Results show that the freight transport demand will reach 24.1–60.5 trillion ton-kilometers by 2060. CO 2 emission would peak at 0.8–1.0 billion tons in 2030–2041 if the breakthrough technologies are not developed on a large scale. Carbon neutrality in the freight sector is difficult to achieve by relying on the low-carbon transition of the energy system alone, with 57–555 million tons of remaining CO 2 emissions in 2060. The advanced technologies have significant effects on energy saving and emission reduction. The research, development, and application of hydrogen-fueled heavy trucks should be accelerated. • A National Energy Technology model is established for China's freight transport. • The freight demand under the influence of e-commerce development is forecasted. • The uncertain impacts of various low-carbon measures are investigated. • China's freight transport is difficult to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. • A low-carbon development pathway is proposed for China's freight transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]