Non-inferior solutions for virtual water strategies: Model development and a case study in northern China.

• Virtual water strategies might lead to economic decline. • A framework is established to identify the non-inferior solutions for the strategies. • Optimized strategies benefit the tradeoff between water conservation and economy. Despite the effectiveness of virtual water strategies for water resource conservation, this approach has not yet been widely adopted in real-world water resource management. One major reason is that previous research on this approach emphasized its water conservation effects, but understated its economic impacts. In the present study, we combined a computable general equilibrium model with Pareto optimality analysis to establish an analytical framework. This framework can help planners to quantify the trade-offs between water resource conservation and economic development, and identify non-inferior solutions for virtual water strategies. We used the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, and considered three strategy sub-modes (promote-imports, limit-production, and dual-policy) and five water-intensive agricultural sub-sectors (cotton, oilseeds, melons and fruits, grains, and vegetables). We found that although the virtual water strategy can improve water conservation, it has negative effects on economic development; compared with the promote-imports modes, the limit-production and dual-policy modes were non-inferior choices; cotton was an inferior agricultural sub-sector to implement the virtual water strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]