Probabilistic analysis of lateral behaviour of offshore wind turbine monopile considering uncertainties of geological model and loads.

Due to the complex geological, meteorological and hydrological conditions, along with the limited availability of field measurements, multiple uncertainties are related to the performance analysis of the offshore wind turbine. The main sources of uncertainty are the geological model and the environmental loads. However, the geological model uncertainty and loads uncertainty were often characterized separately in previous studies. To this end, this article proposes a novel framework for the coupled characterization of the geological model and loads uncertainties. With this new framework, the geological model is generated using a conditional random field method, in which the stratigraphic and geo-properties uncertainties are characterized simultaneously. Next, environmental parameters are considered as random variables, and the cross correlation between different environmental parameters is captured with the Pearson correlation coefficient. Then, multiple realizations of the geological model and these of environmental parameters are sampled with Monte Carlo simulation. With these generated realizations as inputs, the monopile foundation performance could then be analyzed probabilistically considering uncertainties of the geological model and loads. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the new framework, a case study of an offshore site in Taiwan is conducted. Further, a comparative study is performed to quantitatively reveal the influence of different uncertainty sources on site characterization and monopile behaviour assessment, through which the superiority of the presented framework is demonstrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]