Evaluation of the number of events' influence on model performance and uncertainty in urban data-scarce areas based on behavioral parameter ranking method.

• A BPROME method to quantify the impact of number of events on model performance and uncertainty is constructed. • A regular influence of the model uncertainty decreases and the model performance increases with the number of events increases. • At an appropriate range of numbers of events can achieve better parameter calibration effect of the model in data-scare areas. Rainfall-runoff data in drainage systems in urban areas is the essential input variable for urban hydrological modeling. Obtaining high quality and sufficient size of urban flood events is always difficult due to the inconvenient underground observation and the untimely capture of the rapid rising and recession stages of urban runoff. It largely constrains the efficiency of model calibration and brings large uncertainty in urban rainfall-runoff simulation. Therefore, the evaluation of the number of events' influence on model performance and uncertainty is of great significance, which can provide useful information to help the decision makers select sufficient useful observation data for model calibration with relatively fewer events. In this study, we constructed a comprehensive method of behavioral parameter ranking of multi-events (BPROME) based on coupling the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) algorithm and the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results in the two small demonstration areas (named Case #A and Case #B) in Shenzhen city of China proved the good performance of the BPROME in uncertainty assessment in urban areas. We found the model uncertainty (average bandwidth (B) and average deviation amplitude (D)) and model performance (containing Ratio (CR) and the maximum value of behavioral samples' NSE (NSEmax)) became stable at a certain number of events in both two case areas. The B and D decrease and the CR and NSEmax increase as the number of event increases. In particular, the model performance and uncertainty reach their appropriate state concerning the limited observations at a certain range of numbers of events (both three to five in our two case areas). Our results demonstrate the potential influence of the numbers of events for the urban rainfall-runoff modeling calibration which can balance the model efficiency and data collection cost (the number of input rainfall-runoff data). The findings could help decision-makers seek a trade-off between data investment and acceptable model performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]