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Integrating Uncertainties in a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with the Entscheidungsnavi.
- Source :
-
Mathematics (2227-7390) . Jun2024, Vol. 12 Issue 11, p1746. 28p. - Publication Year :
- 2024
-
Abstract
- The Entscheidungsnavi is an open-source decision support system based on multi-attribute utility theory, that offers various methods for dealing with uncertainties. To model decisions with uncertainties, decision-makers can use two categories: Forecast and Parameter Uncertainties. Forecast Uncertainty is modeled with (combined) influence factors using discrete, user-defined probability distributions or predefined 'worst-median-best' distributions. Parameter Uncertainty allows imprecision for utilities, objective weights, and probability distributions. To analyze these uncertainties, the Entscheidungsnavi offers several methods and tools, like a robustness check, based on (Monte Carlo) simulations and a sensitivity analysis. The objective weight analysis provides insights into the effects of different objective weight combinations. Indicator impacts, tornado diagrams, and risk profiles visualize the impact of uncertainties in a decision under risk. Risk profiles also enable a check for stochastic and simulation dominance. This article presents the complete range of methods for dealing with uncertainties in the Entscheidungsnavi using a hypothetical case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 22277390
- Volume :
- 12
- Issue :
- 11
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Mathematics (2227-7390)
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 177856900
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/math12111746