Real time hydrogen plume spatiotemporal evolution forecasting by using deep probabilistic spatial-temporal neural network.

The accidental leakage of gaseous hydrogen from hydrogen refueling station facilities has the potential to result in a large fire and explosion catastrophe. The ability to forecast the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrogen plumes in real-time is crucial for monitoring the distribution of plume concentrations and mitigating the risk of fire and explosion. The utilization of deep learning has been extensively employed in a diverse range of spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. However, these approaches encounter limitations in accurately quantifying uncertainty when predicting spatiotemporal concentrations and plume boundaries. This research paper introduces a novel model called DPSTNN_H 2 Evolution, which is a deep probabilistic spatial-temporal neural network designed for forecasting the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrogen plumes. The benchmark dataset is constructed by the implementation of numerical simulations pertaining to the inadvertent leak of hydrogen within a hydrogen refueling station. The findings of the study indicate that incorporating quantified uncertainty information might enhance the precision of plume boundaries and the resilience of plume concentrations when predicting the spatiotemporal development of hydrogen. By employing Monte Carlo sampling with a sample size of m = 100 and a dropout rate of p = 0.1 , the model demonstrates the ability to provide real-time inference for 10 instances of plumes, while maintaining a high level of accuracy with R2 = 0.9829. In comparison to the current state-of-the-art model, the proposed model demonstrates superior accuracy and robustness in forecasting the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrogen plumes. In general, our proposed model has the potential to serve as a dependable option for the development of a digital twin for emergency management of hydrogen refueling stations. • Probabilistic spatial-temporal neural network model for hydrogen plume evolutions is proposed. • Normalized uncertainty contours and uncertainty intervals to improve accuracy and robustness. • Numerical experiment of hydrogen leakage and dispersion in refueling station are conducted. • Optimal hyper-parameters of the proposed model are determined • Comparison between the proposed model with point-estimation based model is conducted [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]