Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in Algerian residential buildings using a bottom-up GIS approach.

[Display omitted] The rising global energy use in buildings, driven by climate change and economic expansion, is a major concern. In Algeria, the residential sector is a significant contributor, accounting for roughly 40 % of total energy consumption and 32 % of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper aims to Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in Algerian residential buildings. In this study, a bottom-up methodology was combined with Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis to quantify and project energy consumption patterns in Algerian residential buildings until 2100, as well as identify climate zones, which will help develop thermal standards. Commencing with the collection of pivotal data such as temperature and global horizontal irradiation (GHI), the research proceeds to ascertain the annual heating and cooling needs for residential houses across Algeria (at 906 uniformly dispersed spots) using the degree-days method. Besides, the energy consumption for other residential appliances, including lighting, refrigerators, and freezers are also evaluated. Utilizing a GIS software (ArcGIS 10.x), the obtained results for various building energy usage at 906 points are therefore interpolated to generate high resolution maps representing different regions in Algeria. The analysis predicts a significant rise in energy consumption from 47.54 TWh in 2022 to 74.4 TWh in 2100, underscoring the diverse energy requirements across nine identified climatic zones. Zone 5 emerges as the highest energy-consuming zone per household, attributed to its elevated Heating Degree Days (HDD) and Cooling Degree Days (CDD) values. Additionally, cooking emerges as the primary energy consumer nationally, accounting for 30.61 % of total consumption, with variations observed in the usage of appliances like air conditioners and fans, influenced by local climate conditions. Zones with high heating energy needs, such as Zone 5, could benefit from energy-efficient heating systems, while zones with substantial cooling energy requirements, like Zone 9, may require targeted cooling strategies. These findings emphasize the necessity of tailored energy policies to address the distinct demands of each climatic zone rather than setting standard strategies for all regions. Despite few limitations of this study, useful insights are gained that can aid policymakers and urban planners in crafting sustainable energy policies to address evolving residential energy demand in Algeria and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]