Spatial patterns, determinants, future trends, and implications for the sustainable use of terraces abandonment in China.

Terrace abandonment in hilly and mountainous regions, particularly in China, has become a significant concern. However, comprehensive assessments of abandonment patterns and underlying causes are still lacking. This paper elucidates the patterns, determinants, and impacts of terraces abandonment in China by using data from a survey of 580 villages across 346 counties and employing spatial analysis and the Heckman two-stage model. Terrace abandonment, which began in the 1990s, has progressively intensified, peaking in 2015. Currently, 51.55% of surveyed villages experience terrace abandonment, affecting 21.17% of households and 8.37% of the total terrace area, with a distinct prevalence in the South and scarcity in the North. Key factors contributing to terrace abandonment include low returns compared to other options, wildlife damage, high engagement in non-farm labor, and substantial non-farm income. In 2021, terrace abandonment led to the loss of 9.36 million tons of grain production capacity, enough to fulfill the yearly consumption requirements of 23.4 million people. Moreover, terrace abandonment undermines the cultural importance of terraced agriculture, reduces tourism potential, and hinders rural rejuvenation. The challenge of terrace abandonment is anticipated to worsen with the increase in non-farm economic activities and ecological restoration projects in hilly and mountainous regions. It is crucial for the government to implement measures to enhance terrace management. These measures include reducing operational costs for large contiguous plots, promoting the cultivation of cash crops to increase revenues from extensive scattered plots, and advocating for the reforestation of agricultural land to enhance the ecological value of remote terraces at higher altitudes. Addressing these issues can achieve sustainable terrace use and management, contributing to broader rural development and ecological goals. [Display omitted] • Terrace abandonment has been observed across approximately 60 countries. • 21.17% of households and 8.37% of terrace areas have experienced abandonment. • Terrace abandonment has led to a decrease in China's grain production capacity by 9.36 million tons. • Terrace abandonment may intensify because of the expanding non-farm economy and ecological restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]