Trinity IV: predictions for supermassive black holes at z ≳ 6.

We present predictions for the high-redshift halo–galaxy–supermassive black hole (SMBH) connection from the Trinity model. Matching a comprehensive compilation of galaxy (0 ≤ z ≤ 13) and SMBH data sets (0 ≤ z ≤ 6.5), Trinity finds: (1) The number of SMBHs with M • > 109 M⊙ in the observable Universe increases by five orders of magnitude from z ∼ 10 to z ∼ 2, and by another factor of ∼3 from z ∼ 2 to z  = 0; (2) The M • > 109 and 1010 M⊙ SMBHs at z ∼ 6 live in haloes with ∼(2 − 3) and (3 − 5) × 1012 M⊙; (3) the newly discovered JWST AGN candidates at 7 ≲ z ≲ 11 are overmassive compared to the intrinsic SMBH mass–galaxy mass relation from Trinity , but they are still broadly consistent with Trinity predictions for flux limited AGN samples with Lauer bias. This bias favours the detection for overmassive SMBHs due to higher luminosities at a fixed Eddington ratio. However UHZ1's M •/ M * ratio is still some 1 dex higher than Trinity AGNs, indicating a discrepancy; (4) Trinity underpredicts the number densities of GN-z11 and CEERS_1019 analogues. But given the strong constraints from existing data in Trinity , the extra constraint from GN-z11 and CEERS_1019 does not significantly change trinity model results. (5) z  = 6–10 quasar luminosity functions will reduce uncertainties in the trinity prediction of the z  = 6–10 SMBH mass–galaxy mass relation by up to ∼0.5 dex. These luminosity functions will be available with future telescopes, such as Roman and Euclid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]