基于土地利用情景模拟的和田地区生态系统服务价值时空特征与交互驱动研究.

To investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem services value (ESV) and the driving mechanism thereof, the coupled PLUS-Geodetector model was used to simulate land-use scenarios from 2018 to 2034 in Hotan region and to analyze the trend of changes in ESV and the driving mechanism from the perspective of industrial development. The results are as follows：eight land-use types, neighborhood weights under different scenarios, and the PLUS model was used for simulation to obtain the three land-use scenarios of natural evolution, economic priority, and ecological protection in 2034. Under all three scenarios, the total ESV in Hotan region increased, with the highest increase being in the ecological protection scenario and the lowest being in the economic priority scenario. Except for the southern mountainous areas and the areas near the waters in the north-central part that were high -, second high -, and medium-value areas, the distribution of ESV showed the general characteristics of being dominated by low-value and second-low-value areas, with the high being in the south and the low being in the north. From 2010 to 2018, Hotan′s substantial changes in ESV were mainly concentrated in areas adjacent to the central town development axis, while in 2018—2034, the spatial change range of ESV will be further expanded, and the rapid expansion of cultivated land and construction land to the north and south of the town axis brought about by the rapid development of agriculture, animal husbandry, and industry was the main factor causing the spatial changes in ESV. The expansion of man-made landuse types in the economic priority scenario occurred faster, while that of the ecological protection scenario was the opposite. The current status and evolution of ESV in Hotan region is the result of the combined effects of natural and social-economic factors. Natural factors have stronger driving effects on ESV in Hotan region than socio-economic factors, while pastoralism and industry have stronger driving effects among socio-economic factors. The driving force of two-factor interactions is greater than that of one-factor, and the driving force of the interaction among industries is higher than that of a single industry. The study showed that different development modes will reveal differences in the quantity and distribution of ESV in Hotan region. Various factors and their interactions within each industry have considerable driving effects on the changes of ESV. Scientific planning of development routes based on the evaluation and analysis of the driving mechanism of ESV has great significance to the sustainable and high-quality development of Hotan region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]