基于投资者行为分析的众筹绩效预测模型.

Addressing the issue of information asymmetry in crowdfunding, this paper developed a new model for predicting crowdfunding performance, based on the decision utility rules for processing uncertain information in prospect theory and combining the analysis of crowdfunding project information disclosure with investor utility. To tackle the issue of excessive feature selection in practical applications, it introduced a sparsity-based feature selection method using neural networks, which could help crowdfunding platforms to focus on core features for better understanding and predicting investor behavior. Empirical analysis of over 150 000 projects on the Kickstarter platform shows that models considering investors perception of risk and prospect utility have better predictive and explanatory power for crowdfunding performance. The research results not only provide a new perspective for the prediction and evaluation of crowdfunding projects, but also offer powerful tools for crowdfunding platforms and fundraisers to establish models for analyzing backers backing behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]