1980-2020 年疏勒河流域水面 蒸发量变化趋势及预测.

[Objective] The aims of this study are to reveal the variation characteristics and future evolution trend of water surface evaporation in the Shule River Basin, to better understand the dynamic changes of water resources in the basin, so as to provide decision support for the planning and management of water resources utilization in the region. [Methods] Based on the monthly and yearly water surface evaporation data of four hydrology stations in Changmabao, Shuangtabao Reservoir, Dangcheng Bay and Danghe Reservoir from 1980 to 2020, linear dip rate, sliding t test, R/S analysis, BP neural network and other analysis methods were used to examine the characteristics of surface evaporation changes in the past 40 years, and the future evaporation and its change trend were predicted. [Results](1) The annual variation of water surface evaporation at all stations in the Shule River Basin showed a decreasing trend during 1980—2020, and the trend rate of each station was ranked as: Shuangtabao Reservoir Station(-187.10 mm/decade)>Danghe Reservoir Station(-178.20 mm/decade)>Changmabao Station(-33.00 mm/decade)>Dangchengwan Station(-30.00 mm/decade), among which the decrease trend of Shuangtabao Reservoir and Danghe Reservoir Station was very significant.(2) The water surface evaporation of Changmabao, Shuangtapao Reservoir and Danghe Reservoir Stations showed a decreasing trend in all seasons, while that of Dangchengwan Station showed an insignificant increasing trend in spring and a decreasing trend in other seasons.(3) The mutation years of Changmabao, Dangcheng Bay, Shuangtabao Reservoir and Danghe Reservoir were 2004, 2015, 2007 and 2007, respectively.(4) The uneven coefficient and concentration of evaporation on the surface of the basin showed a decreasing trend as a whole.(5) It is predicted that the evaporation of water surface will continue to show a downward trend in 2021—2026. [Conclusion] On the whole, the annual and seasonal water surface evaporation in the Shule River Basin shows a decreasing trend, and it also shows a decreasing trend in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]