Microcystis abundance is predictable through ambient bacterial communities: A data-oriented approach.

The number of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) has increased, leading to the widespread development of prediction models for cyanoHABs. Although bacteria interact closely with cyanobacteria and directly affect cyanoHABs occurrence, related modeling studies have rarely utilized microbial community data compared to environmental data such as water quality. In this study, we built a machine learning model, the multilayer perceptron (MLP), for the prediction of Microcystis dynamics using both bacterial community and weekly water quality data from the Daechung Reservoir and Nakdong River, South Korea. The modeling performance, indicated by the R 2 value, improved to 0.97 in the model combining bacterial community data with environmental factors, compared to 0.78 in the model using only environmental factors. This underscores the importance of microbial communities in cyanoHABs prediction. Through the post-hoc analysis of the MLP models, we revealed that nitrogen sources played a more critical role than phosphorus sources in Microcystis blooms, whereas the bacterial amplicon sequence variants did not have significant differences in their contribution to each other. Similar to the MLP model results, bacterial data also had higher predictability in multiple linear regression (MLR) than environmental data. In both the MLP and MLR models, Microscillaceae showed the strongest association with Microcystis. This modeling approach provides a better understanding of the interactions between bacteria and cyanoHABs, facilitating the development of more accurate and reliable models for cyanoHABs prediction using ambient bacterial data. • MLP model better predicted Microcystis using bacterial community than water quality. • Combining bacterial data with environmental factors enhances predictive accuracy. • Microcystis blooms are more strongly influenced by nitrogen sources than phosphorus. • Robust associations between bacteria and Microcystis are evident in both MLP and MLR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]