Increases and decreases in liver stiffness measurement are independently associated with the risk of liver-related events in NAFLD.

The clinical significance of change in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is not well-understood. We prospectively defined rates of progression to and regression from LSM-defined compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and their associations with liver-related events (LREs). Participants in the NASH Clinical Research Network-led NAFLD Database 2 and 3 studies were included. Progression to cACLD was defined as reaching LSM ≥10 kPa in participants with LSM <10 kPa on initial VCTE; regression from cACLD was defined as reaching LSM <10 kPa in participants with baseline LSM ≥10 kPa. LREs were defined as liver-related death, liver transplant, hepatocellular carcinoma, MELD >15, development of varices, or hepatic decompensation. Univariate and multivariable interval-censored Cox regression analyses were used to compare the cumulative LRE probability by LSM progression and regression status. In 1,403 participants, 89 LREs developed over a mean follow-up of 4.4 years, with an annual incidence rate for LREs of 1.5 (95% CI 1.2-1.8). In participants at risk, progression to LSM ≥10 or ≥15 kPa occurred in 29% and 17%, respectively, whereas regression to LSM <10 or <15 kPa occurred in 44% and 49%, respectively. Progressors to cACLD (≥10 kPa) experienced a higher cumulative LRE rate vs. non-progressors (16% vs. 4%, adjusted hazard ratio 4.0; 95% (1.8-8.9); p < 0.01). Regressors from cACLD (to LSM <10 kPa) experienced a lower LRE rate than non-regressors (7% vs. 32%, adjusted hazard ratio 0.25; 95% CI 0.10-0.61; p < 0.01). Change in LSM over time is independently and bi-directionally associated with risk of LRE and is a non-invasive surrogate for clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD. The prognostic value of change in LSM in patients with NAFLD is not well understood. In this large prospective study of patients with NAFLD and serial vibration-controlled transient elastography exams, baseline and dynamic changes in LSM were associated with the risk of developing liver-related events. LSM is a useful non-invasive surrogate of clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD. [Display omitted] • The clinical significance of changes in LSM over time in NAFLD is not well-studied. • Of 1,403 prospectively followed patients with NAFLD, 89 developed liver-related events over 4.4 years. • Of those at risk, 29% progressed to LSM ≥10 kPa, and 44% regressed from LSM >10 kPa. • Progressors had a four-fold increase whereas regressors had a 75% decrease in risk of liver-related events. • Changes in LSM over time are a useful surrogate for clinical outcomes in NAFLD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]