Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Selection of Reintroduction Sites for the South China Tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) in China.

Simple Summary: The South China tiger is a unique subspecies of tiger endemic to China and has become extinct in the wild. However, it is currently unclear whether there are still ideal habitats suitable for the survival of the South China tiger population in China at present and in the future. Our goal is to assess which areas will become the most suitable for the reintroduction of the South China tiger to China under the impact of climate change, and to estimate the number of tigers these areas can support. This study selects eight key prey species of the South China tiger, and predicts the potential suitable habitats for each prey under current and future climates. The study reveals that the core candidate sites for the reintroduction of the South China tiger cover a total area of 83,415 km2, with the largest core candidate site area totaling 10,000 km2, located in Tibet, which can ideally support the survival of 89 South China tigers in the wild. This study provides a research basis and strategy for the recovery of wild South China tiger populations. The South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) is a tiger subspecies unique to China and one of the top ten endangered species in the world. It used to play an important role in the overall function of the ecosystem. This study rationally screened out key prey species of the South China tiger—the Chinese serow, Chinese goral, tufted deer, water deer, Chinese muntjac, red muntjac, sambar deer, and wild boar. Candidate sites for the rewilding and reintroduction of the South China tiger were derived by exploring changes in suitable habitats for the prey using the MaxEnt model. The results show that: (1) by 2070, except for the high-suitability areas of water deer and Chinese muntjac, the areas of suitable habitats for the other six prey species would all have decreased significantly; (2) the location of the high-suitability area of the South China tiger obtained by superimposing the suitable areas of the eight prey species would be almost stable in 2050 and 2070, but the habitat index of some high- and medium-suitability areas would decrease and turn into low-suitability areas; (3) the core candidate sites were 83,415 km2 in total, of which 25,630 km2 overlapped with existing protected areas, accounting for 30.7% of the core candidate sites, and the remaining 69.3% of the core candidate sites were mostly distributed around the protected areas; (4) the maximum core candidate site area was projected to be 10,000 km2 by 2070, which could support a small population of 23 male tigers and 66 female tigers to survive and reproduce in the wild. This study revealed the core candidate sites for the rewilding of South China tigers and estimated the number of tigers that could be reintroduced to these areas, providing a preliminary research basis for promoting the rewilding of South China tigers in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]