A framework for evaluating the combined effects of water transfer and storage strategies on water stress alleviation.

• A method to assess water stress is proposed based on scarcity-variability concept. • This is a first national evaluation of water transfer and storage strategies. • Reservoir operation plays a primary role in alleviating water stress in China. Water transfer and storage are two effective anthropogenic management strategies to alleviate the contradictions between water supply and demand. However, the trade-off and synergistic impacts of management strategies in alleviating water stress remain unclear at the national level. Therefore, this study proposes a framework that integrates the fraction of runoff being withdrawn (scarcity coefficient) and the variation of runoff weighted by reservoir (variability coefficient) to evaluate the multifaceted impacts of management strategies on water stress mitigation. The proposed framework evaluates the changes in both the water supply–demand balance and the historical variability of runoff by considering physical water transfers, virtual water flows, and reservoir operations. This study applied the framework to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns of water stress and used principal component analysis to estimate the relative contributions of management strategies across ten first-order basins in China for the period of 2014–2018. Results show that water-resource scarcity coefficient varied between −37.15% and 13.28% at the basin scale (the national average varied −5%) and water-resource variability coefficient varied between −100% and −19.26% at the basin scale (the national average varied −61.11%). Management strategies, incorporating water transfer and storage strategies, shifted the distribution patterns of national water stress. The attribution analysis revealed that reservoir storage capacity was the largest contributor to the first principal component representing infrastructure element, whereas the second component representing economic element was affected by the net virtual water inflows. Overall, through exploring the outcomes of combined effects among management strategies, this proposed framework provides a comprehensive perspective for investigating how human activity alleviates regional water stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]