What leads to a professorship in German economics? A longitudinal analysis of tenure determinants (1984–2021)

This study uses event history analysis to show what promotes tenure in German economics, utilizing a unique and virtually complete national dataset that includes 70,657 publications from 3955 economists, of which 1196 received tenure between 1984 and 2021. While existing theories emphasize that gender discrimination, parenthood, human capital, academic prestige, and social capital explain who is tenured, no study has thus far evaluated these factors concurrently across an entire national population of economists. Our findings reveal that fewer women receive tenure than would be expected based on their representation in the candidate pool. However, gender, parenthood, and non-reviewed publications do not significantly influence tenure attainment after controlling for covariates. Instead, mobility, accessing advanced career stages, and peer-reviewed journal articles are most strongly related to receiving tenure. Independently of productivity, academic prestige, such as receiving grants and awards, also impacts tenure prospects significantly, as does social capital, measured through research mobility, interim professorships and co-authorships. Being affiliated with prestigious universities shows minimal effects on receiving tenure, however. These findings imply that mobility, moving up career stages and being productive by publishing peer-reviewed journal articles are the strongest determinants of becoming a tenured economics professor in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]