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Phase dynamics of MJO and their correlation with Indian summer monsoon onsets.

Authors :
Prajapati, Riddhi D.
Pathak, Kamlesh N.
Shastri, Niket
Source :
Theoretical & Applied Climatology. Nov2024, Vol. 155 Issue 11, p9601-9617. 17p.
Publication Year :
2024

Abstract

The impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on India's intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall has been investigated in this study. Anomalous MJO amplitude points from 1979 to 2021 are classified into post-, pre- and normal onset years of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). High MJO amplitudes, particularly those exceeding three standard deviations from the mean, correlate with significant rainfall anomalies, affecting both the timing and intensity of the monsoon. Specific MJO phases contribute differently to rainfall patterns, with phases 3, 4, and 5 generally suppressing rainfall, while phases 1 and 8 enhance it. Pre-onset years show significant rainfall anomalies driven by strong MJO activity, particularly during phases 3, 4, and 5. Normal onset years exhibit notable suppression and enhancement patterns, with significant fluctuations observed in 1996 and 2020. Post-onset years have the highest frequency of anomalies, with phases 3 and 4 prominently influencing rainfall variability. Overall, this research underscores the critical role of MJO dynamics in modulating rainfall variability in India. The findings suggest that understanding MJO phases can improve rainfall predictability and monsoon onset forecasting, aiding in better climate prediction and water resource management. This study contributes to the broader climatological discourse by elucidating the interplay between MJO activity and regional precipitation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
0177798X
Volume :
155
Issue :
11
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Theoretical & Applied Climatology
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
180550230
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05202-3