Seismic hazard analysis for critical infrastructures in California

Abstract: California is in a highly seismically active region, and structures must be designed and constructed to withstand earthquakes. Seismic hazard analysis to estimate realistic earthquake ground motions and surface fault rupture offsets is done for various mitigation measures. The best policy is to avoid constructing structures crossing seismogenic faults. Because earthquake timings are unpredictable within our current understanding, the best method is time-invariant deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DHSA) to assess effects from the largest single earthquake called Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCEs) expected from seismogenic faults. Time-dependent hazard estimates such as those arrived at through probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are inherently unreliable. Hazard analyses based on MCEs have been in continuous use for the design and construction of highways and bridges in California for over 30 years. This paper presents an alternative to other methods of analysis, e.g., Abrahamson (2000) [Abrahamson, N.A., 2000. State of the practice of seismic hazard evaluation. Melbourne: proceedings of GeoEng, 2000]. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]