Forecasting Suitable Habitats of the Clouded Leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) in Asia: Insights into the Present and Future Climate Projections Within and Beyond Extant Boundaries.

Simple Summary: The clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) is listed as "vulnerable" due to significant population declines across mainland Asia. Despite existing ecological research, the understanding of the species' habitat suitability, fragmentation, and corridor connectivity remains limited. The present investigation recognizes that, in addition to habitat suitability within its current extent, the species' historical ranges also encompass a significant proportion of suitable habitats. Climate change is expected to exacerbate habitat loss, intensifying fragmentation and reducing the number of viable habitat patches. This study highlights the importance of several transboundary biological corridors, with Southeast Asia predicted to experience the most pronounced connectivity declines, while Bhutan, Nepal, and India are projected to retain more robust ecological networks. To address these challenges, a coordinated conservation strategy is crucial, focusing on mitigating habitat loss and fragmentation as well as addressing the species' shrinking range and increased vulnerability to inbreeding. This study provides critical insights into potential translocation and reintroduction sites, laying the groundwork for a targeted conservation plan designed to protect the clouded leopard across South and Southeast Asia in response to climate change. Terrestrial carnivores, such as the clouded leopard (Neofelis nebulosa), are 'vulnerable' and experiencing significant population declines in mainland Asia. Considering the assessed threats, the IUCN has repetitively revised the range of this felid and now characterized it into four distinct categories (extant, possibly extant, possibly extinct, and extinct). Although several ecological works have been accomplished on this enigmatic carnivore, the overall view of its habitat suitability, fragmentation, and corridor connectivity in both present and historical ranges is lacking. Thus, achieving this ecological information under present and future climate scenarios is crucial. The model identified merely 44,033 sq. km falling within the extant range (representing 31.66%) and 20,034 sq. km (8.13%) in the possibly extant range. Fascinatingly, within the historical ranges, an additional 15,264 sq. km (6.58%) has been identified as suitable habitat in the possibly extinct range and 14,022 sq. km (2.38%) in the extinct range. Notably, a total of 25,614 sq. km of suitable habitat is found within designated protected areas across the entire range. Nevertheless, climate change is expected to drive habitat loss of up to 41% (overall IUCN range) for N. nebulosa in both present and historical extent, with habitat patches becoming increasingly fragmented. This is reflected in a projected decline in the number of viable habitat patches (NP) by up to 23.29% in the future. This study also identified 18 transboundary biological corridors for N. nebulosa, with Southeast Asian countries expected to experience the most significant declines in corridor connectivity. In contrast, the South Asian countries (Bhutan, Nepal, and India) are projected to maintain relatively higher connectivity in the future. Nevertheless, a substantial decline in overall mean corridor connectivity is projected in the near future due to the impacts of climate change. This study underscores the urgent need for a coordinated and multifaceted conservation strategy for N. nebulosa, focusing on mitigating habitat loss and fragmentation. Practical measures must be implemented to protect the species' shrinking range, considering its declining corridor networks and heightened vulnerability to inbreeding depression. Moreover, the assessment of habitat suitability both within and beyond the extant range, alongside corridor connectivity measures, provides valuable insights into potential translocation and reintroduction sites for this species. These findings provide a critical foundation for developing a strategic conservation plan tailored to the specific needs of this felid species across South and Southeast Asia, ensuring enhanced climate resilience and mitigating associated threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]