Investment Attractiveness of Afforestation in Canada Inclusive of Carbon Sequestration Benefits.

Afforestation is one of several possible mechanisms available to sequester carbon and help reduce greenhouse gas concentrations. We have developed a spatial Monte Carlo-based simulation model, Canadian Forest Service—Afforestation Feasibility Model (CFS-AFM) to help assess the financial attractiveness of afforestation as a means of carbon storage in Canada. The model tracks five carbon pools and simulates costs and benefits of plantation investments. In this paper we simulate three afforestation scenarios that could be used in Canada; plantations using hybrid poplar, hardwoods, and softwoods with average growth rates of 14 and 6–7 m3/ha/year, respectively. The attractiveness of afforestation is driven by regional cost and plantation productivity variation and carbon price expectations. The results indicate that afforestation would be an attractive investment in many areas of the country at carbon prices of $10 per metric ton of CO2 or higher. However, with a zero carbon price, very little afforestation would be financially viable. Thus, with low carbon price expectations, other co-benefits may be required to make afforestation more attractive to Canadian investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]