Comments on generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation

Abstract: The paper presents an application of the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology to the problem of estimating the uncertainty of predictions produced by environmental models. The methodology is placed in a wider context of different approaches to inverse modelling and, in particular, a comparison is made with Bayesian estimation techniques based on explicit structural assumptions about model error. Using a simple example of a rainfall-flow model, different evaluation measures and their influence on the prediction uncertainty and credibility intervals are demonstrated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]