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A Bayesian Method for Transformer Life Estimation Using Perks' Hazard Function.
- Source :
-
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems . Nov2006, Vol. 21 Issue 4, p1954-1965. 12p. 10 Charts, 15 Graphs. - Publication Year :
- 2006
-
Abstract
- This paper introduces PJM Interconnection's new method to model and predict transformers' service lives. A simplified Perks' equation is used to model the hazard rates, which will be used synonymously with retirement rates in this paper, of transmission transformers. A Bayesian Method is used to model the uncertainty in the three parameters of Perks' equation. This method is different from the traditional Iowa Curve method in that: 1) it gives a continuous family of transformer life distributions as well as the extinction likelihoods, rather than a limited number of distribution patterns and 2) a closed-form distribution can also be deduced with only three parameters, which can assume all the three distribution patterns of Iowa Curves: right, left, and symmetrically modal. The method has been successfully applied to the statistics on hundreds of large electric transformers in PJM. Example problems are provided and solved with this new method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 08858950
- Volume :
- 21
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 23205333
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2006.881129