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Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing -- Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework.
- Source :
-
Energy Journal . Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, Vol. 27, p201-233. 33p. - Publication Year :
- 2006
-
Abstract
- This paper presents a set of multi-gas mitigation scenarios that aim for stabilisation of greenhouse gas radiative forcing in 2150 at levels from 3.7 to 5.3 W/m². At the moment, non-CO2 gasses (methane, nitrous oxide, PFCs, HFCs and SF2) contribute to about a quarter of the global emissions. The analysis shows that including these non-CO2 gases in mitigation analysis is crucial in formulating a cost-effective response. For stabilisation at 4.5 W/m², a multi-gas approach leads to 40% lower costs than an approach that would focus at CO2-only. Within the assumptions used in this study, the non-CO2 gasses contribution to total reduction is very large under less stringent targets (up to 60%), but declines under stringent targets. While stabilising at 3.7 W/m² obviously leads to larger environmental benefits than the 4.5 W/m² case (temperature increase in 2100 are 1.9 and 2.3°C, respectively), the costs of the lower target are higher (0.80% and 0.34% of GDP in 2100, respectively). Improving knowledge on how future reduction potential for non-CO2 gasses could develop is shown to be a crucial research question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 01956574
- Volume :
- 27
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Energy Journal
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 23714774
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-volsi2006-nosi3-10