¿Un callejón sin salida? Trayectorias políticas y alternativas de reforma en Uruguay.

This paper describes some of the political factors that help us understand the trajectory of the Uruguayan welfare regime. Among the variables considered this essay stresses the long term and structural factors that have shaped the Uruguayan welfare. The essay reflects upon the possible impact that these variables might have in deterring the country from undertaking needed reform. We argue that in the past social-structural factors, combined with institutional variables and political competition have transferred the costs of social adjustment towards the sectors with less social organization. While this dynamic has helped fueled the stability of the political system it has also contributed to what we term an increasing dual pattern of representation. Based on this diagnosis we argue that a new distributional coalition is required in order to break this pattern of representation and its ill effect over the adjustment of the Uruguayan welfare regime. The unprecedented victory of the left on the general elections offers a unique opportunity to structure such a coalition. But the social heterogeneity of the political basis of the left might hinder such possibility, thus blocking a reformist process capable of redefining the welfare trajectory of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]