Forecasting Instability: Are Ethnic Wars and Muslim Countries Different?

This paper is a companion to "A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability" (Goldstone et al.), also prepared for the 2005 APSA Annual Meeting. Using the data and methods that are described in that paper, we present statistical models that were developed to assess the vulnerability of countries worldwide to ethnic war, and the vulnerability of predominantly Muslim countries to all types of instability. While we identify some risk factors that are unique to ethnic war and Muslim countries, we conclude that the predictors of instability are fundamentally similar across a broad range of forms and cultural milieus. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]