Poliheuristic Theory and Crisis Decision-Making: A Comparative Analysis of Turkey with China.

The present study will seek to add to understanding of crises in world politics through application of Poliheuristic Theory (PH) to crisis decision-making for two important states, Turkey and China. The research builds on previous analysis of Chinese crises, which found a considerable degree of agreement with predictions derived from PH. The present study moves that work forward in three ways. First, it introduces a new case, Turkey, to the analysis. Second, some additional hypotheses from PH are tested on both states. Third, the results for the two states are compared to each other, with a special emphasis on finding patterns related to anomalies. This study unfolds in five stages. After a brief overview, the next stage introduces PH in the context of crisis decision-making and derives hypotheses. This is followed by case selection and coding procedures. Findings are conveyed initially for Turkey and then in comparison with China. Evidence from each state supports the main hypotheses from PH, namely, Political Primacy and Diverse Dimensions, although the fit is better for Turkey than China with the latter of the two. Conclusions and directions for future research appear last. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]