The Path Not Taken: North Korea's Divergence from China's Economic Reform Trajectory.

The paper uses qualitative empirical analysis to understand the depth and complexity of North Korea's unique development dilemma and trajectory. The paper attempts to understand North Korea as a hesitant "gradualist transition economy" on its own terms, viewed in comparison to China's "successful" economic reform trajectory, in order to shed light on why some authoritarian regimes successfully implement economic reform, and others have not. China's "successful" reform and opening path was stimulated and abetted by the combined force of bottom-up societal desires and pressures, teamed with top-down policies reflecting China's considerable state capacity under the Communist Party rule to lead long-term economic development, and facilitated by a favorable global environment. North Korea's unique gradualism, on the other hand, has largely failed, in part due to the global setting, but most importantly as a result of North Korea's own domestic political dynamics and institutions. Kim Jong Il's peculiar leadership structure and personality cult, based on the "suryong" (Supreme Leader) system supported by North Korea's "juche" (self-reliance) ideology, particularly the "songun" (military-first) policy, has eroded state functions, preventing the civilian bureaucracy from setting long-term economic development goals beyond regime survival, and tolerating little or no bureaucratic autonomy in implementing economic reform policies.In a very real sense, the historical legacy of Korea's anti-Japanese struggle has created a so-called "guerrilla-band state" in North Korea, haunting and defining Kim Jong Il's management style, including his use of economic policy instruments. Kim's "guerrilla tactics" approach, defined as an "achieve quick gains or abort the policy" approach, is fundamentally incompatible with long-term economic reform and opening policy. North Korea's trajectory has been doomed to follow a disjointed "go-and-stop" transition path. Despite recently rising willingness to reform economy, North Korea's state capacity to implement a long-term economic strategy has been degraded by decades of capricious and highly ideological leadership. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]