China?s Surging Energy Demand: Trigger for Conflict with Japan or the Emergence of an Energy-Environment Regime in Northeast Asia?

The 21st century ushered in rising nationalism in both Japan and China. Mutual Sino-Japanese suspicions and accusations have been aggravated by the dispute over demarcating the resource-rich continental shelf in East China Sea and by the competition with regard to securing preferential access in the future construction of a pipeline from East SiberiaGiven that China?s imports of crude oil are projected to double by 2020 in tightening global energy markets, is it likely that Japan, whose dependence on oil imports is nearly 100 percent, may simply escalate conflicts with China with regard to energy security, due to the lack of policy coordination between the two? Is there any conceivable catalyst which may otherwise reverse what is seemingly a spiral of deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations?This paper sheds light on the ?hidden? side of so-called energy security, namely energy conservation; the other side of the coin as regards competition over limited energy supplies is usually emphasized from traditional geopolitical viewpoints. It attempts to explore the prospects for the emergence of an issue-oriented regime by focusing on energy-environmental areas and to examine the possibility of achieving a ?win-win? situation (or positive-sum game) in Northeast Asia It is estimated that China needs approximately ten times the amount of primary energy that Japan does to produce US one dollar equivalent of GDP, whereas the Chinese government considers energy conservation to be an unavoidable impending national issue in terms of maintaining its economic development, as endorsed by the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006-2010). Promoting technology transfers from Japan would bolster the sustainable development of the Chinese economy on the one hand, while on the other, Japan would also benefit, not only from mitigating China?s soaring energy demand, but also from promoting carbon emissions trading, particularly by employing the Clean Development Mechanism.It is argued that, despite the prima facie aggravation in the Sino-Japanese relationship, there nevertheless exists much potential for mutual cooperation or, at least, strategic trade-offs, which may in turn lead to stability in bilateral ties in the years to come. In addition to discussing the ongoing development of energy conservation business between the two, this paper addresses the implications of the Asia-Pacific Partnership, advocated by the Bush Administration since July 2005, and the conceivable roles of the United States in stabilizing Northeast Asian energy and environmental issues for the sake of future Sino-Japanese relations. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]