Recognition of Pre-Conflict Patterns and Constellations ? A Winning Method for Risk Analyses or Even Potential Prognoses?

There are no standard formulas, or even universal principles for recognising, let alone forecasting violent conflict. Still, a set of explanatory factors considering background conditions as well as escalatory dynamics helps simplify the task of recognising critical situations. The topic of this work concerns constellations and convergences of specific factors that characterise the pre-conflict phase of violent political conflicts. By the use of quantitative analytical methods, it focuses on the direct interaction between structural and dynamic indicators as precursors to crises. A model of indicators is presented that takes into account structurally determined cleavage lines in equal measure as their very mobilisation by dynamic factors.A close examination of leading explanatory factors could help intervening external actors adjust their potential options of pro-active or in-conflict policy responses. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]