Sino-American Diplomatic Grand Deal: Game Theoretic and Empirical Analyses of Taiwan and North Korean Cases.

In East Asia, Taiwan and North Korea had been two most striking sources of Sino-American security contention. In Taiwan Strait, the key issue is whether Taiwan would go independence, despite China?s flagrant threat of using military forces to deter it. In case of North Korea, whether the North gives up its nuclear program and adopts reform and open door policy or it finally faces internal/external collapse serves as an incessant debating menu. But in both cases, the US and China pose contending positions. In Taiwan, the US at least supports status quo in the Taiwan Strait, if not Taiwan?s independence; while China believes the case as the last thing that they can accept. The US expects North Korea?s Kim Jong-il regime to collapse in the end, while China struggles to help surviving moribund Kim?s regime.Although these two security issues had thus far been two major security issues relating to the Sino-American relations, these had strangely been analyzed and studied in separate fashion. In other words, many pundits, scholars, and politicians had widely dealt with the Taiwan issue and North Korean issue per se, but this study attempts to link both issues in causal relations and to evaluate its influence over the Sino-American diplomatic relations. Based on this assumption, this paper plans to review the Sino-American relations regarding Taiwan and North Korea, and then to find out any meaningful co-relationship between the two cases. In order to produce consequential research outcomes, this study will apply game-theoretic model and event data analysis. Also, this study will cover the period from 1990 to now. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]