The Difficulties of Establishing Ground Truth and Its Importance in Post-Conflict Reconstruction.

After determining a desired end state and national objectives for a conflict, the most difficult issue for practitioner-scholars to tackle is determining the ground truth of the situation, and how that truth varies among players. Military planners, especially when the planners are from multiple countries, national leaders (again, from multiple countries), international organizations, and private contractors all must know and understand several key issues. The first is the nature of the conflict. If they cannot all agree that they are in a conflict, or the type of conflict they are working to end, they will not be able to affect a reconstruction. Second, they need to know the ground truth on population demographics. In many countries, there is no valid census data, which makes settling competing claims difficult at best. Third, planners need to know whether the course of action they are following has been tried before; if so, what were those outcomes. Finally, they need to establish whether or not they must be 100% successful everywhere in order to achieve the desired end states. Even the best plans are doomed to failure if they are implemented in the wrong situations. Knowing the ground truth must necessarily precede planning for post-conflict reconstruction. Panelist is a Lieutenant Colonel in the US Air Force with a doctorate in Political Science and teaches at the Air Command and Staff College. Personal experience in Baghdad working for the Multi-National Force, Iraq and with multiple diplomatic missions brought to light the fact that the ground truth in the country of interest is different from the perceived truth back home and even different between parties within the country itself. Such differences amplify any incoherence national political and military leaders might have in the direction operations take in attempting to achieve desired end states and reconstruct a country. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]