The Role of the Japanese Media and Public Opinion in Aid Sanctions Against China.

Japan and China are the major powerbrokers in East Asia. Japan has the second largest economy in the world, while China is an emerging economic and military power. The nature of their relationship, whether confrontational or cooperative, will help to determine the level of peace, stability, and prosperity in East Asia, and beyond. Therefore, the importance of this relationship cannot be underestimated. Yet as the two countries have become economically more interdependent, they have become politically more estranged. In fact, in recent years we have witnessed decisions by each government that have seemed designed to provoke rather than pacify one?s neighbor. I argue that the explanation for this largely lies in domestic politics. In this study, I seek to examine one aspect of this: the role of the Japanese media and public opinion in foreign aid policy towards China. Official Development Assistance (ODA) has been one of the main pillars of Japan?s China policy since 1979. The form that Japan?s ODA strategy towards China has traditionally taken is one of ?long-term engagement,? or a steadily increasing stream of economic benefits to promote good relations. However, there were three times during this period when Japan?s foreign aid policy towards China strayed from its normal trajectory of engagement: economic sanctions after the 1989 Tiananmen Square Incident, the 1995-1996 freeze of grant aid after China?s underground nuclear tests, and the 2000-2001 review and reduction of ODA to China. In my paper I will examine the interaction among media coverage, public opinion, and policymaking in each of these cases. My argument is that the media performed its role as ?trickster,? serving both the public and the state. It did this by allying with either the public or the state at different stages. The media carried out three tasks: conveying information both between and among the government and the public, mobilizing public opposition to initial government policy, and helping to convince the public of how the policy that was finally decided upon was a good compromise. In other words, it focused, escalated, and then extinguished attention.My research design combines qualitative and quantitative approaches. I will begin by conducting a content analysis of Japanese print media coverage, charting trends in items including policy position, volume of coverage, type of article (straight or opinion), and information sources (such as government or business). I will then compare these trends to those in public opinion. Finally, I will conduct a statistical analysis of public opinion, media coverage, and the evolution of policy decisions in each of these three cases, determing the degree to which there is a correlational and/or causal relationship. In examining the role of the Japanese media and public opinion in these aid policy decisions, I seek to discover the interrelationship among the media, the public, and policymaking, and shed some light on the role of domestic politics in the relationship between a status quo power and an emerging power. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]