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Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease
- Source :
-
Mathematical Biosciences . Jan2008, Vol. 211 Issue 1, p166-185. 20p. - Publication Year :
- 2008
-
Abstract
- Abstract: This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Subjects :
- *DISEASES
*DIAGNOSIS
*ETIOLOGY of diseases
*MEDICINE
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00255564
- Volume :
- 211
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Mathematical Biosciences
- Publication Type :
- Periodical
- Accession number :
- 28080024
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2007.10.007