Chinese Naval Analysts Consider the Energy Security Question.

Despite significant academic discussion of why China might not be willing to simply continue free riding on U.S. naval protection of its oil imports, few researchers have attempted to comprehensively analyze energy-related writings in Chinese naval and maritime publications. China's naval capacity will likely grow along with its resource import needs, making the issue of maritime energy security a sensitive and very important topic in U.S.-China relations. Maritime energy security is a truly global issue and in coming years could affect US-China relations as the two nations compete for influence and energy access in West Africa, Southeast Asia, Pakistan, and other portions of the Indian Ocean region. The status of U.S.-China maritime energy security interactions will play a critical role in this new 'Great Game' by directly affecting how intensely China seeks overland oil supply routes. This in turn will influence U.S.-China interaction in Central Asia and the Russian Far East. In addition, development of a cooperative ("1000 Ship Navy") or competitive naval relationship in coming years between China and the U.S. would have profound, if opposite, effects on each country's naval development trajectory. The nature of the relationship will also likely affect basing and fore structure on both sides.Washington and Beijing have shared interests in ensuring that the global oil trade functions smoothly and with as little overt political interference as possible. Thus, the authors' hope that their integration and analysis of perspectives from a range of Chinese naval and energy analysts will help lay the intellectual groundwork for constructive bilateral discussion between Washington and Beijing on key maritime energy security issues.This chapter will proceed in seven steps. First, a context for the naval strategy discussion will be established by briefly examining the broader trends in both energy and naval strategy. Second, the chapter will investigate the distinct maritime ideology that has emerged in China over the last decade and its focus on developing and protecting off-shore resources for China's national development. The third section will describe U.S.-China global energy competition and the geo-strategic challenges China faces in protecting a supply chain that stretches deep into the Middle East and Africa. The fourth will assess the calculations of China's naval analysts concerning possible threats to this critical energy sea line of communication (SLOC). Bearing these threat assessments in mind, the fifth section will evaluate the recommendations of these analysts regarding the future trajectory of China's fleet development. A final section describes the cooperative aspects of these naval writings on Chinese energy strategy and implications for U.S.-China relations. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]