A "Solid North"?: Social Issues and the Rise of the Democratic Party in Northern Suburbs, 1988-2006.

Many observers credit the improved performance of Democratic presidential candidates in the 1990s and 2000s to the increasingly Democratic loyalties of suburban voters in the North. This paper tests the hypothesis that these voters are embracing the Democrats due to their positions on social issues. While northern suburbanites are more likely to vote Democratic than they were in the 1980s, this trend is particularly concentrated among the residents of the ten largest metropolitan areas in the region. I find that voters in these large metro areas—both within central cities and the surrounding suburbs—have moved disproportionately toward the Democrats since 1988 due to the increased electoral salience of social and cultural issues. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]